The Quiet Build-Up 3, CAF Fighter Jets
Cut the Fat, Shift the Footing: Canada’s Fighter Jet Crossroads
Cut the Fat, Shift the Footing: Canada’s Fighter Jet Crossroads
🧭 Why This Moment Matters
I’ve been tracking Canada’s F‑35 procurement saga since Parliament quietly greenlit the program in July 2010 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper—one of many no-win moves when it comes to sovereignty and affordability. Policy Options offered a prescient 2016 cautionary tale worth revisiting.
Today, in mid-2025, Canada faces a critical—and time-limited—decision point.
A decision on the remaining 72 F‑35s (beyond the 16 already funded) is due by September. But the true window to influence this outcome is even shorter. Parliament rises in July. That leaves weeks—not months—for public pressure and parliamentary scrutiny.
This isn’t a fringe debate. The Auditor General has confirmed:
"Initial estimates of $19 billion have increased to more than $33 billion, and essential infrastructure will not be operational until 2031 at the earliest."
"The final F‑35s are expected to be operational by 2034, while Canada’s current CF‑18 fleet is set to retire by 2032—leaving a two-year capability gap.”
The status quo isn’t just unaffordable. It’s unworkable.
The Quiet Build-Up, Part 2
The 2% Myth — Canada’s Real Defence Posture
This is no sprint — it's a marathon.
Here’s what we know.
In 2024, Canada announced it would hit the NATO target of 2% defence spending... but not until 2032.
That’s eight years away.
Now, eight years might sound like a long time. But in global military planning? That’s a blink.
We are already behind.
And in some areas — like logistics, infrastructure, and procurement — we are starting from much farther back than our allies.
You’ve probably heard the talking point: "Canada needs to meet its NATO commitment."
But let’s get clear — this isn’t just about spending. It’s about readiness.
Money matters, yes. But where and how we invest matters more.
What the 2% Target Really Means (And Doesn’t)
The 2% benchmark isn’t a magic number. It’s not a guarantee of capability. And it certainly isn’t a signal that a country is secure.
What it does do is give NATO partners a shared commitment. A baseline. It’s symbolic.
But that symbol has taken on serious weight in today’s geopolitical climate — especially as the war in Ukraine grinds on, and global alliances shift in real time.
Canada signing on to the 2% target — even eight years out — signals one thing:
We know the world is changing.
And we know we need to show up differently.
Capability Gaps: From Delays to Dependence
Here's the hard part: spending doesn’t fix the past.
Canada has faced repeated delays in major defence projects — shipbuilding, aircraft procurement, supply chain modernization.
Each delay has real-world consequences: gaps in capability, higher long-term costs, and increasing reliance on allies to fill the void.
In some cases? It means we can’t act fast enough — even when we want to.
Take the F-35 program. Canada committed to buying the jets. But delivery, training, and operational readiness are still years away.
And while we wait? The world moves on.
Rethinking What Readiness Looks Like
This isn’t just about hardware. Readiness means people. Systems. Infrastructure. Intelligence.
It means having ports that can support naval expansion. Airstrips that can handle modern fighter jets. Logistics that function even under threat.
Right now, much of Canada’s military infrastructure is — to put it bluntly — outdated.
Not everywhere. But enough to matter.
Some ports need major upgrades. Arctic routes remain vulnerable. And cross-border coordination with the U.S. is increasingly complex — especially as NORAD evolves.
A Marathon, Not a Sprint — But the Race Has Already Started
So where does that leave us?
It leaves us needing to think long-term.
But act short-term.
Because while our goal may be 2032 — the pressure to deliver is now.
That means funding projects not just for optics, but for operational impact.
It means reducing bureaucracy and cutting political red tape around procurement.
And it means talking honestly — with ourselves and our allies — about what Canada is actually ready for.
Not just what we say we’ll be ready for... eventually.
A Sovereignty Moment: Gripen vs F-35
There’s still a conversation to be had — publicly — about what we’re buying, and why.
Right now, Sweden’s Gripen jets offer a faster-to-field, sovereignty-friendly alternative to the U.S.-led F-35 program.
They’re not a direct replacement — but they are a serious option, especially when it comes to domestic control over maintenance, data, and deployment timelines.
And crucially? The Gripen is cold-weather tested and designed for rougher landing conditions.
It’s built for short runways, winter strips, and the kind of fast-deploy scenarios Canada may face in the Arctic.
The F-35, by contrast, is more delicate: it requires longer, reinforced runways, specialized hangars, and consistent support infrastructure not always available in Canada's remote or northern environments.
Critically, F-35 data and servicing must go through U.S.-controlled systems — limiting Canada's independent operational capacity. That raises red flags for long-term sovereignty.
Gripen jets offer a made-for-purpose solution that aligns better with Canadian geography, climate, and autonomy.
This is about climate as much as cost — and about control as much as capability.
It’s a quieter conversation.
But it’s growing louder.
Public opinion could still shape the direction — if we act now.
Cut the Fat, Shift the Footing: Canada’s Fighter Jet Crossroads
Canada now faces a September 2025 decision on the remaining 72 F‑35s. But Parliament rises in July — the real window to speak up is shrinking fast.
The Auditor General has already sounded the alarm:
“Initial estimates of $19 billion have increased to more than $33 billion, and essential infrastructure will not be operational until 2031 at the earliest.”
“The final F‑35s are expected to be operational by 2034, while Canada’s current CF‑18 fleet is set to retire by 2032 — leaving a two-year capability gap.”
This isn’t theory — it’s urgent. The current path is unaffordable, unworkable, and unwise.
A smarter path? A split-fleet strategy:
Keep ~24 F‑35s for core NORAD defence.
Invest the remaining budget in European alternatives like Saab Gripen.
Co-manufacture and assemble aircraft in Canada — building sovereignty, jobs, and resilient supply chains.
This protects defence, supports industry, and positions Canada as a project partner in NATO’s Readiness 2030 — not just a policy taker.
What You Can Do Right Now
Start by reading Wayne Horton’s breakdown:
And when it comes to writing your MP — don’t overthink it. It doesn’t matter whether they’re in Cabinet or in the opposition. Every MP has a voice. Every MP can forward constituent concerns to decision-makers.
Whose Planes? — it’s an excellent primer on why this debate matters.
Then send a letter. We’ve made it easy:
👉 Click here to send your message to your MP and the federal government.
You can use our template below — or write your own. The point is: do it now.
Sample Letter Template:
Subject: Support a Balanced Fighter Strategy — Split the F-35 Buy
Dear [MP’s Name],
I’m writing as a concerned Canadian to express my support for re-evaluating the federal government’s commitment to the F-35 procurement. As citizens, we deserve full transparency on whether this platform is truly suitable for Canada’s defence needs — particularly in Arctic and remote regions.
The Gripen, for instance, offers proven cold-weather capability, shorter runway access, and greater domestic control over maintenance and data. These are not minor details — they’re fundamental to readiness and sovereignty.
Please consider pausing further F-35 rollouts until a full and public review of viable alternatives — including the Gripen — is completed.
Please forward this message to:
Defence Minister David McGuinty
PSPC Minister Joël Lightbound
Defence Procurement Secretary Stephen Fuhr
President of the Privy Council Dominic LeBlanc
I ask to be CC’d on all forwarded correspondence.
Sincerely,
[Your Name]
[Your City, Province]
📬 Maximize Your Impact
Find your MP: ourcommons.ca/Members/en/search
Cabinet Directory: pm.gc.ca/en/cabinet
Send a hard copy! MPs must respond to mailed letters — email replies are optional.
Don’t let silence equal consent. Speak up before July ends. This is your moment to shape Canada’s defence future.
A Final Thought
Defence isn’t just about dollars. It’s about direction.
Let’s treat this 2% moment not as the end goal — but as the starting line.
Because readiness isn’t just about what we buy —
It’s about whether we’re ready to think, act, and lead... like we belong at the table.
The window to act — and to be heard — is closing fast.
So if this matters to you?
Say something. Share something. Write someone.
Every voice counts.
Let’s make sure they hear us.
✍️ Part 3 of “The Quiet Build‑Up” coming soon: Arctic readiness, military recruitment, autonomy, and supply‑chain sovereignty.
Link to Between the Lines to read Part 1 and Part 2 of this series.
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Thanks for being here. Your voice matters. -Leni
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